Monday, February 7, 2011

Optional Race #1 - 4 Tam

Here is my spreadsheet entry for this race:

Click here

(brings up a new window, which may make it easier to follow)

Here is the key to all this data:

Outcome - ARV outcome letter
ML - morning line
Logical - A,B,C or X - this was explained in the previous post
trnr - rating for trainer: F <5%, D 5-9%, C 10-14%, B 15-19%, A > 20% winners
PRECOG10 coordinate, photoset, Viewer, Judge - ARV identifiers
Columns headed 1-12: ARV photo numbers; letters in 1st row are ARV Outcomes; numbers in 3rd row are Targ CR ratings
Outcome string etc. - Sometimes the outcome corresponding to the highest Targ CR
Notes - Logical handicapping notes
 --- EXCEPT: yes in this column means a horse that I had an intuitive feeling about
The stuff in the left columns under the horse names is race identifier info.
My final predictions for the race ranked 1-2-3 is below that.

(you don't need to understand all this to follow these posts)

For this race, the 4th at Tampa Bay Fri. Jan. 28 1011, #2 Lift Off was my only logical "A" rated horse; he also was the highest Targ CR at 5 so was the ARV choice, and also was one of the 3 "yes" horses I had a good intuitive feeling about.  The only issue was his 9/2 morning line - very marginal for an optional race. So I was happy to see that he went up to nearly 8-1 by post time.

The race went very well too - he pressed the pace, took over in the stretch to lead by 2 1/2 at the eighth pole... then a horse came from far back to beat him by 1/2 length. The winner at 6-1 was none other than my 2nd choice #9 Bowwood ;-)

So, not an optimal result, but it does justify my handicapping method, gives me some confidence that I am on the right track, and I did collect $8.20 in contest points.

My results are summarized on the Summary page of the spreadsheet.
I didn't have time to update this during the contest, so I am doing it now while I write these posts.

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