Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Friday Summary and Looking Ahead to Sat.

I finished Day 1 with $33.80, ranking 145th out of 301, in the top half.

At this point I let all the Day 1 tension go.
I simply stopped being concerned whether I was going to win or not, and decided to really have fun, whatever happened.
It was just fun to be there!

Faced with having to judge 15 sessions and logically handicap 15 races Friday night, I decided I didn't have time for both. So I jettisoned the logical handicapping.

My feeling about logical handicapping is that I really don't have an edge over the cream-of-the-crop horseplayers I was competing against. One day soon I am going to have the world's best handicapping database, which incorporates all kinds of data that most horseplayers don't use - and I will have a tremendous edge in logical handicapping when that happens.
Until then, my big edge is in my intuitive methods.

That sure wasn't immediately evident Friday though.
I had only 1 top ARV choice win in 15 races, and he was 3-2, so the ROI was terrible.
Intuitive "yes" horses, where I just went down the list and felt which horse felt good, were even worse - 2 winners from 41 starters, or 5%, and neither were longshots.

Logical handicapping was better percentage wise, but nothing to write home about - both As and Bs hit at 17%. Cs won at an average 10%, and Xs were only 1-for-49 or 2%. This is not bad percentage wise, but the ROIs were not good.

There were some bright spots in the ARVing.
Targ CRs of 4 and up had 4 winners in 24 races, or 17%. Their odds were 7-1, 13-1 (the longest Mandatory winner of the day), 4-1 and 3-2, and their $1 ROI was +$.20 profit per dollar.
(Note that 9 of the 13 races that had at least one Targ CR 4 or higher had more than one of them, so this stat alone does not make for automatic winners - one usually has to choose the correct one.)

Targ CRs 3 and less were 11-for-127 or 9%, about half the 4-up total, with a losing $1 ROI of -$.60.

So the higher rated Targ CRs are doing better than the lower rated ones, and that is good, since on Day 2 ARV is the only selection method I will be using.
The intuitive "yes" method I decided to discard.

I was in a much better frame of mind for Saturday.

Next: Saturday Races

1 comment:

  1. Tom -- I'd like to create a site that links to all NHC-themed blogs. At the moment the only ones I know of are mine, yours, and I'm thinking a site that combines the blogs in one place can be a platform for more exposure.
    Is this OK with you?