Optional #4: 5 FG - Had a 12-1 horse, logical B (2 logical As low odds), intuitive yes - he was no factor and finished 10th.
Mandatory #2 - 8 Tam - My 8-1 horse (2nd highest Targ CR, logical C) rallied to finish 2nd to a co-favorite. I collected $9.40 to place.
Mandatory #3: FG 6 - Had two logical As; picked #4 at 4-1 because of Targ CR of 3 (5-way tie for top). Ran well but couldn't catch the favorite, paying $5.20 to place.
My experience with the 12th National Handicapping Championship of U.S. Thoroughbred horse racing
Showing posts with label details Friday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label details Friday. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Monday, February 7, 2011
Optional Race #3 - 3 OP
No, you didn't miss Optional Race 2:
I had planned to make my next optional to be the 4th at Gulfstream - I had a first time starter on top for both ARV (targ CR of 6 again) and logically A (though not an intuitive "yes").
Her morning line was 6-1 - but to my shock she opened at 3-5, eventually going off at 11-10.
Betting very short odds horses won't do for optional races, as I explained in my strategy post. The field had also scratched down from 10 to 7 entries, another no-no for optionals. So I reluctantly decided to scrap using the race, and got the teller to cancel my ticket, in spite of the very good feeling I had about the horse.
She won by 9 lengths, but I had no regrets over the $4.20 win - $3 place payoffs.
I had planned to make my next optional to be the 4th at Gulfstream - I had a first time starter on top for both ARV (targ CR of 6 again) and logically A (though not an intuitive "yes").
Her morning line was 6-1 - but to my shock she opened at 3-5, eventually going off at 11-10.
Betting very short odds horses won't do for optional races, as I explained in my strategy post. The field had also scratched down from 10 to 7 entries, another no-no for optionals. So I reluctantly decided to scrap using the race, and got the teller to cancel my ticket, in spite of the very good feeling I had about the horse.
She won by 9 lengths, but I had no regrets over the $4.20 win - $3 place payoffs.
Mandatory Race #1 - 7 Aqu
I had planned to bet the favorite #10, a logical A horse with a very high Targ CR of 6 (out of 7) and a "yes" intuitively, but she scratched, so I wound up with #2 Talented Princess at 22-1, who had a Targ CR of 3 and was a B logically, as well as being designated as an Upgrade by Racing Flow for running against the bias and/or flow of her previous race.
I did not have a good feeling about the top Targ CR horse #6.
#2 was no factor and finished 5th; ditto #6 at 160-1 (!); the winner was #9 at 4-1, bet down from ML of 12-1 (albeit with the favorite scratching, which depletes all odds).
I did not have a good feeling about the top Targ CR horse #6.
#2 was no factor and finished 5th; ditto #6 at 160-1 (!); the winner was #9 at 4-1, bet down from ML of 12-1 (albeit with the favorite scratching, which depletes all odds).
Optional Race #1 - 4 Tam
Here is my spreadsheet entry for this race:
Click here
(brings up a new window, which may make it easier to follow)
Click here
(brings up a new window, which may make it easier to follow)
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