The Last Race

So, one optional race left.
I was mathematically eliminated from winning now, but I still had a shot at prize money, if I could hit a longshot in my last race.

My last optional was the 9th at Golden Gate.

Two horses were tied with Targ CR of 5: #2 Shi'ah Sand, morning line 8-1, and #7 Indian Charlize, ML 15-1. Based on this, the no-brainer choice was #7. I needed a horse with odds of 12-1 or greater to attain 30th place and the prize money.

Also, I had a very strong knowing that #7 would win. This feeling was very strong - the strongest feeling I had in the 2 days of the contest. I just knew #7 would win.

When the odds for the race were first posted, I was dismayed to see #7 listed at 7-1. This was far too low to be an acceptable pick. Now this horse was a first time starter, and having money show on the tote like this early and steadily (which it was) is a very good sign for a horse with a lesser known trainer - it means the stable thinks the horse has a really good shot to win, usually.

#7 remained at 7- to 9-1 throughout most of the betting. Meanwhile, the other Targ CR 5 horse #2 was around 20-1 - more than enough to finish in the prize money.

So, at about 5 minutes to post, I decided to change my pick to #2 - I overrode my strong intuitive feeling, to make a strictly logical choice.

Somehow I lost track of the tote board at this point - I did not notice that #7 had drifted to higher and higher odds, while #2 was being bet down somewhat. In fact by post time, #7 was 14.3 to 1, while #2 was 15.6 to 1. Either one would put me close to 30th place, depending of course on what the others were doing, and how many people would move up in the standings in their last few races.

In the race, #7 took the lead from the start and won wire-wire, paying  $42.60 in win/place contest points. #2 was no factor and finished 7th.


I have to play the "what-if" game now, of course ;-)

Had I not changed that pick and stuck with #7, my total for the contest would have been $151.20.
Initially I was not feeling good about this, since I thought that 30th place was around $148. On looking at the final leaderboard in my room later on the net though, I discovered that 30th place had been at $154.20 - I would have finished in 31st place, $3 behind.

So, my last minute change did not cost me the $2,000 prize money for 30th place.
In fact, it turned out that the 15.6-1 vs. 14.3-1 may have been enough difference to put me in 30th place, had #2 instead won.
I also would not have finished in the top 3 for Saturday's prize money - I would have finished tied for 13th.

Anyway, whatever the actual result, this race was a big lesson learned for me.
The lesson is, bet what feels right - do not try and override it with left-brained thinking.
It is best when logic and intuition work together; but when it comes to the final decision, trusting my gut feeling must take precedence.

Oh, and I should mention my cash bets. I made one bet Friday, and 7 bets Saturday before the last race, without cashing a single one.
I justified my switch in the contest last race by thinking, I can still bet the horse that I have a strong knowing about, in cash. So I did - and it did feel good to cash that bet. The winnings actually gave me a $50 profit for my cash bets for the two days - nice!


Next: ARV Hit on Friday Mandatory #8

Second Half of Saturday's Contest Day

My 4th optional, 9th Aqu: my pick was close for awhile, then stopped to finish 10th at 98-1.
(Top ARV choice (Targ CR 5) was the 6-5 favorite who ran 3rd; my pick was the longest odds of the three Targ CR 3 horses.)

5th mandatory, 9th GP: Top Targ CR 5 horse ran 7th at 53-1.

My 5th optional race, the 10th at Tampa: Targ CR 5 horse ran 8th at 42-1.

My 6th optional race, GP 10th, the Sunshine Missions Classic Stakes: Top Targ CR 5 #9 Dream Maestro had a valiant effort, but flattened out to finish 3rd - at 57-1! - while another cap horse was the winner. Tantalizing, but no cash.

Mandatory race 6, the 6th at Golden Gate: Top Targ CR 4 horse ran last at 13-1.

So, even though I had no points lately, I noted that the leaderboard showed 30th place at $139.00, so with $108.60 I am still very much in the hunt to get some prize money. Winning it all is looking like a longshot at this point - I'd probably need a 20-1 and a 10-1 winner in my last 3 races - not impossible though....

Mandatory race #7, 9th at Oaklawn: My 48-1 pick is no factor and finishes last.

8th and last mandatory, race 8 Santa Anita: My pick runs 5th at 6-1. (Short field of 7 so only one horse was greater than 10-1.)

Next: The Last Race

First Half of Saturday's Contest Day

Saturday's Google spreadsheet with my picks is here

I will be updating it while I write these posts.

I was able to get plenty of sleep Friday night, since I had jettisoned the logical handicapping.
Saturday morning I went down to the racebook around 9 AM and made all my picks for the day. You can change picks once made, but as it turned out I changed only one of them (more on this later).

I went with my top Targ CR choice for all races. If there was a tie, I picked the horse with the higher morning line odds.

My first optional was the 4th at Aqueduct at 10:55 AM PST.
I decided I needed to relax, and the best way for me to do that was to go to the gym and work out on the elliptical.  I had had no exercise in several days (I didn't set foot outside the hotel the entire time I was in Vegas), and I am always more relaxed after I exercise.

So, I ended up missing that first race, and also the first mandatory race, the 1st at Oaklawn. I arrived back at the racebook just as my 2nd optional was about to go off, the 5th at Gulfstream, 11:17am.

I was hurrying to make that one because I wanted to change my pick.
I didn't make it in time - but that turned out to be a good thing, as my original pick at 5-1 finished 2nd to the favorite, while the one I wanted to change to ran out. I collected $5.40.

When I checked the results of the two races I missed, I was amazed to find that my pick in the optional Aqu 4th had finished 2nd and paid $79 to place! Checking the result chart later, I learned he had gone off at 131-1, had been 2nd, dropped back to 3rd, then came again to beat the even money favorite for the place - very nice! (He was not threat to the winner, who was another 7 lengths in front.)

This horse was the top ARV Targ CR of 4 after the horse with 5 scratched. Because his place payoff was higher than the winner's win plus place payoffs, this was an ARV hit - nice to start with that ;-)
I collected $22 in contest points for this, because of the 10-1 odds cap for place horses.
My pick in the other race that I missed was no factor at 14-1.

So I now had $55.80. The leaderboard was up sporadically on the big screen, and they were posting it on the bulletin board on the wall, but I did not bother to look what place I was in until later.
(You can see the final, day 1 and day 2 leaderboards here.)

Also at this point I had 7 (seven!) 2nd place finishes in the contest - but no winners. I did not let this get to me, I was relaxed and having fun.


The 2nd mandatory and my 4th race of the day was the 5th at Aqueduct. Top ARV choice was #4 Thunder Chief, ML 4-1. I ws not thrilled with those odds, and with a rider switch to Eclipse award winner and Aqu leading jock Dominguez I expected low odds. To my surprise, he went off at 5-1, took the lead after 3/4 mile, and just held on to win by a nose!
WINNER!!!! My first winner of the contest! Another ARV Hit!

It was worth $17.80, and I now had $73.60.
I estimate I was in about 70th place at this point.
I was doing really well!

In the 3rd mandatory, Aqu race 6, my 23-1 pick trailed the field, and was being eased up when his rider fell off ;-) (I believe he was OK). Ah well.

In my 3rd optional, Fair Grounds race 5, my 7-1 pick was a great ARV match (Targ CR 6 of 7), but had a terrible trip, breaking slowly and racing wide, finishing 11th.

The 4th mandatory was the 8th at Gulfstream, the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint Stakes. I had an ARV tie of two horses with Targ CR 5. I picked the longer odds horse #8 at 9-1 - the other horse was the favorite, who went off at 6-5, so it was a no-brainer. I also had a good feeling about #8 Aegean - I had her when she won a stakes early in her 2 year old career.

In the race #8 came 4-wide around the turn, grabbed the lead at the eighth pole, and was all out to last - winning by a nose!
WINNNER!!!!!!!!!!
I was screaming!!!!

It was worth $29.60.
My total was now $108.60.
I went over to look at the leaderboard - I was in 53rd place!
The leader was still way up there at $201.20, so I had a ways to go for that.

You do collect prize money down to 30th place though.
I mistakenly thought it was only to 20th place at this point, so I noted that 20th place was at $137.20, definitely within striking distance.

In addition they pay daily prize money to the top 3 finishers on each day.
My $74.80 was pretty far back from the 2nd day leader's $135.20 though.

So at this point I was about halfway through Saturday's part of the contest.
I felt much better, was doing much better, and was excited about the possibilities ahead.

I did not feel rushed or disorganized at all, as I had started to feel Friday.
I had my picks down, and was following along to see if I wanted to change them.
Even though the races came one after the other at some points (check the times on the spreadsheet), I did not get rattled.

Next: Saturday's Second Half